How bad can blowouts hurt WVU’s fine NCAA resume? Let’s ask Mike DeCourcy

If you’re a WVU basketball fan, watching the Mountaineer men (and women) has been a joy this season.
For the most part.
With the program still reeling from the Bob Huggins issues, new coach Darian DeVries pumped life into the team and fans with a stunning win over then-No. 3 Gonzaga and, after a nine-point loss to Louisville, an overtime victory over then-No. 24 Arizona, all in the Bahamas.
WVU also downed Georgetown in the Big 12-Big East Battle before shocking college basketball by going to Allen Fieldhouse and beating Kansas in Lawrence for the first time ever.
Yet there was also that Nov. 15 loss to Pitt. Well, it was more than a loss. It was a 24-point blowout at the Petersen Events Center. Then, in a rematch with Arizona this past Tuesday, Jan. 7, the Wildcats crushed the Mountaineers by 19 in the Coliseum.
Through it all, WVU stands at 11-3 (78.6 winning percentage) despite a brutal schedule that won’t be letting up. That’s terrific. At this point, the Mountaineers are definitely in line for the NCAA tournament.
But I began to wonder after the Arizona game if the blowouts will hurt the team’s resume. The NCAA selection committee uses a number of factors to rank teams for at-large berth and a biggie is the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool). Score differential is a component, although it is capped at 10 points per game. (Overtime games are capped at one point.)
Of course, the committee certainly can check out all the scores.
Anyway, I’m a naturally curious guy and, fortunately, friends with the foremost college basketball sports writer Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News. He’s a Big Ten Network studio analyst. He does NCAA brackets for FoxSports. In sum, he’s the man.
So I put it to him. I know WVU is in great shape re the NCAA tournament. But do the blowouts hurt? His response:
“When you’re processing the number of games the committee does — we’re talking about at least 80 tournament candidates, including those that enter through automatic bids, playing roughly 35 games each — how much of an opportunity is there for them to parse through the scores of individual games?
“All committee members are assigned a specific set of conferences to monitor. So, if that person happened to watch WVU get run out of the gym by Arizona, there might be a slightly negative impression gained that night. But if the Mountaineers are seriously a tournament team by March, as it appears they will be, then by definition there’ll be an overall positive impression of them when the members go into the room to make the selections and seed the bracket.”
He continued.
“One of the apparent secrets of the process is that seedings tend to align more closely with results metrics and quadrant records, which don’t factor in margin of victory, than predictive metrics that incorporate that data. Last year, Auburn was the No. 4 team in predictive metrics but 3-7 against Quad 1 opponents. They were a No. 4 seed. North Carolina had 2 seed numbers in predictive metrics but won 17 games against Quad 1 and 2. They were a No. 1 seed.”
In sum?
“It doesn’t feel good to get blown out, and it’s obviously not wise to make a habit of it, but I do think some who follow the sport get a little too wrapped up in that one factor.”
The quadrant system is the quality of wins and losses organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking. The number of Quadrant 1 wins is incredibly important to the selection committee. So is the number of Quadrant 3-4 losses.
Anyway, thanks to Mike we have a clearer picture. Getting blown out by an opposing team is never good. But if limited, a few can certainly be overcome.
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Mitch Vingle covered sports in West Virginia for 38 years. Follow Mitch on Twitter at @MitchVingle and be sure to check out the rest of Wheelhouse Creative’s website for your marketing and advertising needs. If interested, call us at 304-905-6005.